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Europe: the war soon

Europe: the war soonEurope: the war soon

A year ago the media wrote that Europe is approaching an imminent war, because the situation in the region is heating up.

Recent events show that the forecast begins to come true.
So only in the last year there was a series of terrorist attacks in Europe: events in Nice, March attacks in Brussels, the terrorist attacks in Paris.
But it’s not just terrorists and supporters of the banned in many countries, including Russia, “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIL).

In the social atmosphere is heating up very much. Thus, residents of Germany, especially women, become objects of attack by migrants.
And subjected to aggression were not only Europeans, but also migrants. For example, a refugee was killed in July in Italy.

It turned out during the investigation, the killer was a member of the football fans group “Ultras”, who was accused of murder motivated by racism.
Discontent migration policy is growing in many countries. For example, this is confirmed by the results of the referendum in the UK, during which the issue of migration was one of the key.
Let’s try to sort out the problems.

Migration – the root of all problems?

Clearly, the influx of refugees in Europe has become one of the most debated topics of recent times. France, Germany, United Kingdom – all of these countries were the main destinations for migrants seeking to Europe.
For example, over 880 thousand migrants arrived in Germany, 415 thousand of them – EU citizens, and the rest – the citizens of other countries or people without citizenship.

These data are given by Eurostat, however, we must understand that the real figures are much higher, as many illegal immigrants penetrate into Europe, which are not included in the Eurostat statistics.
This is often the locals believe that the east Europeans pose them to compete in the labor market.

The paradox is that, despite the rise in unemployment, the influx of migrant workers does not decrease. Europeans tend to have relatively high qualifications, easy job does not suit them.
Therefore, indigenous people often receive unemployment benefits, while migrant workers perform unskilled jobs.
The situation of migrants escalated to such an extent that in many cities of Europe, particularly in Germany, the local population took part in the protests against the immigration policy of the authorities.


One of the biggest problems is unemployment, which is on the one hand, is very different from country to country, but on the other – within the same country the unemployment rate varies between different age groups. Thus, still the highest unemployment rate is among young people.
According to Eurostat data, the lowest number of unemployed in Eurozone are in Germany – 4.5% at the end of last year. In France, the rate is at a level of 10.2%.
The highest unemployment rate was recorded in Greece (24.5% in October 2015) and Spain (20.8%). It is noted that in some regions of Spain the youth unemployment rate reaches 46%. In Germany, the figure is 0.7%.

At the same time the European Union is not the first year of struggling with unemployment. After the 2008 financial crisis, the situation in this area has seriously deteriorated, as well as the eurozone economy is still struggling with the consequences of the crisis, restore employment rates is not possible.
The result is rather disappointing: Unemployment is a significant part of the population of European countries, which can not find something to do and ensure a decent wage.

Together with them in the streets of European cities are migrants who often can not and do not want to assimilate with the local people, learn from their culture. The situation is explosive.

Dangerous statistics

Statistics does not add any optimism. Thus, analysts portal still in 2013 warned that such a situation may lead to social unrest in some European countries.

To confirm the connection between the protests and the austerity measures, the experts studied the history of Europe in almost a century – 1919-2008. During this time, the continent has passed a difficult way from the constant social instability in the beginning of the century to the peace and prosperity in the pre-crisis period.
Economists have examined all demonstrations, riots, acts of terrorism, government crises and attempts of revolutions that have taken place during this time.
The data showed the exact relationship between the reduction in government spending and political instability. If costs are rising in the country the average of events are 1.4. If the cost reduction amounts to 1% of GDP, the number of events increased to 1.8.
If the costs are reduced by 5% of GDP and more, it takes place in the year 3 and more major events. What is happening in Europe? After the 2008 crisis, a number of European countries began to promote a policy of austerity.

It is not just about Greece, but also for other euro zone countries, not withstanding regime of austerity, including France and Italy, not to mention Spain and Portugal.
This policy has recently been heavily criticized not only by analysts and experts, but also from the Europeans.
However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who set the tone in European politics, it seems, does not seek to depart from the principles of austerity and insists on its implementation by all EU countries.

This question, as well as the issue of migrants, is controversial, as some countries are increasing external debt, while others are forced to economize.
Capacity of the external debt leads or may lead to a serious debt crisis, as in the case of Greece. In addition to Greece, high external debt in countries such as Portugal (232% of GDP), Cyprus (107% of GDP), Italy (144% of GDP), Spain (137% of GDP).

Looking at the recent unrest in some European cities, connected both to the situation of migrants around, and with the internal problems of the countries (labor reform in France, clashes with police in Germany), it can be said with certainty that the above theory is supported by analysts Zerohedge.
Therefore, many experts are sounding the alarm: the tension in society increases, and on the threshold of Europe – external danger in the form of LIH, the fight against which is so important to the unity and cohesion. And this is exactly what Europe is now so lacking.

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